Pennsylvania is the fifth biggest state in terms of Electoral College votes. Political experts suggest that Pennsylvania’s position among the most critical states in the 2020 election stems from the fact that the last Republican to win the state before President Donald Trump was George H.W. Bush in 1988. This year it is no different: Pennsylvania is once again a battleground for Democrats and Republicans. 

According to Joseph McLaughlin, a retired political science professor at Temple University who has had a long and varied career in public service and policy advocacy, the presidential election is not as important as the state election in terms of potential impact on the Pennsylvania economy. 

“Demographics threaten the state’s future no matter who wins. Pennsylvania will have increasing numbers of elderly who need government programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and subsidized health insurance and either flat or more slowly increasing numbers of workers to pay for these programs. The state has suffered from slow population growth and slow economic growth for decades,” McLaughlin said. 

Given candidates’ diametrically opposite views on healthcare, former Vice President Joe Biden’s advocacy for expanding the Affordable Care Act will likely resonate with and attract elderly Pennsylvanian voters. 

Pennsylvania’s economy relies mainly on sophisticated metalwork, pharmaceuticals and financial services. According to Kathryn  Malone, Elizabeth B. Blossom Chair of Humanities and Senior Master of Humanities, Pennsylvania’s major industries require highly skilled labor and depend heavily on foreign trade. Given Trump’s previous record of imposing trade tariffs that were “not helpful to anybody,” according to an NPR interview with Pa. Governor Tom Wolf, Biden’s more free-trade-oriented stance will benefit the economy. 

The election is also crucial for Pennsylvania’s farmers. Aside from tariffs on Chinese fertilizers, Pennsylvania’s agricultural sector has suffered the deteriorating quality of farmland due to the rollback of environmental regulations by Trump’s administration. Biden’s leniency towards combating climate change will undoubtedly affect the outcome of the election. 

This year both candidates have campaigned a lot in the Keystone State. As president, Trump has visited Pennsylvania over 20 times, with three rallies in the past month. Biden — who was born in Scranton, Pa. — has been campaigning in Pennsylvania even more seriously, planning to host multiple campaign events in Western Pennsylvania starting Oct. 1. As of Oct 7. Biden had a 6.2-point lead in Pennsylvania polls, yet, with the debate season just starting, the outcome of Nov. 3 remains uncertain.