“We are at the most dangerous moment in the development of humanity,” the late Stephen Hawking warned in a 2016 article. While Hawking’s concerns were broad, his words foreshadowed a silent but profoundly impactful technology – the quantum computer.
Forget AI, nukes, or deepfakes. The “next big thing” is lurking in the arcane world of quantum mechanics.
A quantum computer, in simple terms, is a computer that can multitask. A quantum computer calculates in units that can be multiple values at the same time. In a nutshell, whilst your laptop processes via bits (0s and 1s), quantum computers utilize qubits, units that can be both 0 and 1 simultaneously. It is not just faster – this is a whole new paradigm of calculation.
The implications are nothing short of revolutionary. Researchers in relevant fields predict that, if quantum computing reaches maturity, overnight the world could become cancer-free, entirely renewably powered, and more. On the flip side, quantum computers will enable the possibilities of extremely sophisticated cyberattacks; global supply chain disruptions; and a widespread, constant danger of personal privacy breaches. Whoever masters this technology first wins. Everything.
Enter the gladiators: the United States and China, locked in a high-stakes quantum arms race.
US development currently consists of public-private partnerships, where tech titans like IBM and Google are backed by the government. In 2019, Google’s 53-qubit Sycamore processor completed in minutes a task that would take a classical supercomputer millennia. As of 2022, US companies comprise of approximately half of all private investment on quantum technology, valued at over $2 billion, whereas Chinese investment was valued at only 6 percent.
The Chinese approach has been to go all-in with state power. A staggering $15.3 billion was designated for China’s 2021-2025 quantum plan – dwarfing the United States government’s $1.9 billion pledge. And they are not just throwing money at the problem. In 2016, China launched the world’s first quantum communications satellite, and the 2020 Jiuzhang quantum computer is claimed to leave Google’s Sycamore in the dust.
As of most recent reports, Atom Computing in California was able to breach the 1000-qubit barrier, with IBM following quickly after. China has yet to reach 1000-qubits. Instead, China has been playing it cool. Released in April 2024, the 504-qubit “Xiaohong” allows quantum computers to interpret commands from classical computers, making quantum computing more accessible to other researchers.
However, do not be fooled by the numbers . If the goal of 1000-qubits is a Chinese priority, sufficient funding is at ready disposal. In a 2023 Article, founder of Serendipity Capital Rob Jesudason claims, “China’s model for capital allocation may not be efficient, but betting against its ability to mobilize resources to address existential priorities would be foolish.” Consider every instance of Chinese mobilization: 1000-bed hospital in 10 days, a bridge in 43 hours, etc. China’s quantum initiatives benefit from a centralized decision-making process that can quickly funnel billions into the project.
The prize of the Quantum Race is not just about scientific bragging rights. National security, economic dominance, and the safety of everybody’s digital lives are all at stake. Despite an existing advantage in technology and private funding, the West cannot afford to rest on its laurels. While funding in the United States can fluctuate with election cycles, China’s five-year plans provide sustained investment. The $15.3 billion quantum plan is not a one-time cash injection, but a roadmap for dominating the quantum world.
This is why the United States ought to adopt a space-race mentality and place quantum computing on a much higher priority. Just as the Space Race of the 1960s was more than about reaching the moon, the Quantum Race is more than about faster computers. The loss of the Quantum Race entails forgoing technological supremacy, national security, and global economic leadership.
This could mean increasing federal funding, fostering closer collaboration between government and industry, or creating a national quantum plan that transcends the political divisions that bother what is currently in place.
Although the world is frankly in a moderate stage of quantum development, actions taken and attitudes adopted today could mean an entirely different future. The quantum gap may quickly become an unbridgeable chasm. The Quantum Race might not have a prize for second place. Being first to quantum superiority is gaining access to a dangerously full spectrum of possibilities.
